Ellington Financial Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Ellington Financial is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 10.4% and 28.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 4.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 13.4% in 3 years.
Key information
10.4%
Earnings growth rate
4.16%
EPS growth rate
| Mortgage REITs earnings growth | 26.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | 28.2% |
| Future return on equity | 13.43% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 22 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Ellington Financial: A Diversified Mortgage REIT That Saw Q1 Loans And Earnings Grow
Summary Ellington Financial stands out with a diversified mortgage REIT portfolio and a monthly dividend yield above 11%. EFC beat Q1 earnings estimates for the fourth consecutive quarter, driven by strong transaction volume and organic growth in its credit portfolio. Short-term funding costs and weaker mortgage demand present near-term headwinds, but EFC continues to participate in sizable loan transactions. Net interest margin compressed to 1.47% in Q1 2026 due to higher funding costs, highlighting margin pressure risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEllington Financial: Shifting To The Series C Preferred Shares, Yielding 8.6%
Summary Ellington Financial's Series C preferred shares offer a high yield of 8.6% and are the best choice for income investors. Lower interest rates in late 2024 boosted Ellington Financial's net interest income, and further rate cuts in 2025 could enhance profitability by refinancing $4 billion in debt. Risks include potential declines in housing market prices, rising loan delinquencies, and geographic concentration in California and Florida, which could impact earnings. Despite improved profitability, common shares are less attractive due to dilution and declining book value per share; preferred shares provide a more stable investment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEllington Financial: History Of Cuts Explains High Yield
Summary Ellington Financial offers a high 11% yield but has a history of dividend cuts due to interest rate fluctuations and financing issues. The investment strategy includes a portfolio heavily weighted towards credit assets, with significant leverage and non-recourse HMBS-related obligations. The future outlook hinges on Federal Reserve rate cuts improving interest spreads, but high leverage poses liquidity risks, especially with potential repurchase obligations. Given the risks and historical dividend cuts, the 11% yield is not enticing enough, making EFC better suited as a Hold. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEllington Financial: Trust Issues
Summary Ellington Financial Inc.'s 12.85% dividend yield is attractive, but the company is a hard pass due to excessive leverage and high credit and liquidity risks. The company's financial health is weak and deteriorating, making its dividend unsafe. Macroeconomic uncertainties and risks such as interest rate, credit, and liquidity could severely impact Ellington Financial. The nature of the mortgage REIT business means Ellington Financial carries a high amount of debt, exacerbating EFC's financial vulnerabilities. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEllington Financial: Offers Monthly Dividends And Should Benefit From Lower Interest Rates
Summary My investment focus has shifted to income generation, with Ellington Financial offering a 12% yield despite a recent dividend cut. EFC's dividend reduction from $0.15 to $0.13 per share and missed earnings expectations prompt a downgrade to Hold. The real estate sector shows signs of recovery with rate cuts, but EFC's future performance hinges on economic stability and effective hedging. EFC's diversified revenue streams and strategic asset management position it for potential growth, but market volatility remains a concern. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Securitization And Diversification Strategies Set To Propel Revenue Growth And Net Margins
Strategic advantage from non-QM securitization and strong demand for non-QM loans suggest an upward earnings trajectory through favorable asset-backed securities market conditions.Ellington Financial: Well Positioned For A Housing Market Recovery
Summary Ellington Financial is a solid mREIT with attractive dividends, despite recent dividend cuts and book value decline. The company invests in residential and commercial mortgage loans, aiming to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns. The recovering housing market in 2024-2025 is expected to benefit Ellington Financial, improving asset quality and stimulating demand for new mortgages. Shares are a buy with price target of $15. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEllington Financial: Get 14% Yield Paid Monthly From This Growing REIT
Summary Real estate investment trusts (REITs) have historically offered high-yield income and diversification, but have been sensitive to interest rate risk. The real estate sector has rebounded after the Federal Reserve hinted at potential rate reductions in 2024. Ellington Financial, a unique REIT with a diverse asset portfolio, stands to benefit from lower interest rates and offers a generous monthly dividend. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2027 | 700 | 243 | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| 12/31/2026 | 650 | 265 | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| 3/31/2026 | 400 | 183 | -809 | -809 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 333 | 119 | -925 | -925 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 339 | 126 | -768 | -768 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 321 | 113 | -619 | -619 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 318 | 123 | -497 | -497 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 303 | 118 | -431 | -431 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 294 | 108 | -369 | -369 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 283 | 98 | -298 | -298 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 247 | 49 | -253 | -253 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 252 | 61 | -242 | -242 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 256 | 71 | -190 | -190 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 209 | 31 | -131 | -131 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 115 | -36 | -39 | -39 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 42 | -85 | 43 | 43 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 1 | -74 | 63 | 63 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 28 | -20 | 88 | 88 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 104 | 77 | 75 | 75 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 145 | 124 | 51 | 51 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 181 | 154 | 96 | 96 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 197 | 180 | 97 | 97 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 204 | 184 | 100 | 100 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 43 | 17 | 120 | 120 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 7 | -35 | 106 | 106 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | -21 | -64 | 102 | 102 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | -48 | -88 | 87 | 87 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 89 | 56 | N/A | 79 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 81 | 43 | N/A | -17 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 81 | 32 | N/A | -227 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 82 | 41 | N/A | -348 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 79 | 46 | N/A | -494 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 81 | 55 | N/A | -760 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 72 | 55 | N/A | -571 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 64 | 39 | N/A | -480 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 61 | 33 | N/A | -463 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 69 | 28 | N/A | -218 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 70 | 22 | N/A | -135 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 68 | 22 | N/A | -19 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 59 | -16 | N/A | 70 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 59 | -16 | N/A | 429 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 61 | -12 | N/A | 380 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 78 | -4 | N/A | 297 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 85 | 38 | N/A | 654 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 70 | 39 | N/A | 127 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 74 | 47 | N/A | -289 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: EFC's forecast earnings growth (10.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: EFC's earnings (10.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: EFC's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: EFC's revenue (28.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: EFC's revenue (28.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: EFC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.4%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/10 17:23 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Ellington Financial Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Derek Hewett | BofA Global Research |
| Timothy D'Agostino | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |
| Eric Hagen | BTIG |