Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 15.3% and 21.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 14.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.1% in 3 years.
Key information
15.3%
Earnings growth rate
14.69%
EPS growth rate
| Insurance earnings growth | 2.0% |
| Revenue growth rate | 21.6% |
| Future return on equity | 16.11% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 19 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
ASIC is a technology-differentiated E&S insurer compounding book value with a structurally improving combined ratio
ASIC is a technology-differentiated E&S insurer compounding book value at 15–20%+ ROE with a structurally improving combined ratio — but Zimmer's controlling ownership, a $300M affiliated investment portfolio, and a sub-one-year public track record keep the multiple at 1.56x book, creating a meaningful valuation discount to specialty insurance peers if the underwriting thesis holds. Investment Thesis The combined ratio has improved from 93.9% (2024) to 87.4% (Q1 2026) while GWP grew 23%+ — a combination that suggests genuine underwriting discipline and technology-driven cost efficiency, not just cyclical tailwind The operating expense ratio (10.9% of NEP in Q1 2026) reflects the centralized, automated model's scale benefits, and further leverage is likely as premium volume grows on a largely fixed central cost base The stock trades at approximately 10x forward earnings (annualizing Q1 run rate) and 1.56x book — a substantial discount to specialty P&C peers like RLI Corp (~3x book) or Bowhead (~27x P/E), justified primarily by governance concerns and a short track record rather than fundamental underperformance AM Best's upgrade of the rating outlook to positive, combined with zero debt and a well-capitalized balance sheet ($631M equity), provides balance sheet credibility and positions ASIC to grow its premium base without additional capital Multiple expansion to 2.0–2.3x book (base case) would imply ~$28–$33/share — 35–60% upside — driven by 2–3 more years of sub-90% combined ratios building an auditable track record Risk Considerations Casualty reserve development is the primary financial risk: the long-tailed casualty book (73% of GWP) is still in early development and adverse prior-year emergence would be financially and reputationally damaging for a recently public insurer The $304M affiliated investment complex (Zimmer-controlled Utility & Infrastructure fund + ZIS affiliate loan) represents ~48% of stockholders' equity in non-standard, potentially illiquid assets managed by or connected to the controlling shareholder — a structural governance risk that could persist indefinitely given Zimmer's voting majority E&S market hardness — the cyclical tailwind supporting pricing discipline and above-technical rates — is showing early signs of softening in property; a broader softening cycle would compress margins for all E&S carriers regardless of technology advantage Favorable catastrophe experience in Q1 2026 is not a durable driver; second-half cat seasons remain the primary quarterly earnings volatility source and could produce combined ratios materially above the YTD trend Controlling shareholder structure and emerging growth company disclosures limit public minority shareholder visibility and recourse; investors are largely dependent on Zimmer's goodwill in capital allocation decisions, including the affiliated investment relationshipsAtegrity Specialty Insurance - Another Specialty Insurance IPO Rise And Fall
Summary Ategrity (ASIC), a specialty E&S insurer, IPO'd in June 2025, raising $113M at $17 per share, above its initial range. ASIC operates in the fast-growing E&S market, addressing complex risks that admitted insurers increasingly avoid, due to weather and social inflation challenges. Recent IPOs in the specialty insurance sector highlight investor interest, but ASIC shares have declined post-IPO, now trading just above the offer price. ASIC is growing fast, and boasts industry leading loss ratios, but with little data to validate this. The stock looks cheap now compared to peers, but this could be for good reasons. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 856 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 695 | 117 | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| 12/31/2026 | 538 | 98 | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| 3/31/2026 | 470 | 90 | 161 | 168 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 424 | 73 | 141 | 147 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 406 | 69 | 121 | 127 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 378 | 59 | 107 | 112 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 351 | 47 | 111 | 112 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 344 | 47 | 125 | 126 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 241 | 10 | 86 | 86 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ASIC's forecast earnings growth (15.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: ASIC's earnings (15.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.7% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ASIC's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: ASIC's revenue (21.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ASIC's revenue (21.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ASIC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.1%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/22 21:41 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
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Analyst Sources
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings is covered by 6 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Taylor Scott | Barclays |
| Matthew Heimermann | Citigroup Inc |
| Jamminder Bhullar | J.P. Morgan |