Advanced Digital Health And Infection Control Will Drive Future Markets

Key Takeaways

• Strong demand in core healthcare segments and increasing digital adoption support resilient revenue streams and margin improvement.
  
• Strategic acquisitions and operational efficiencies broaden product offerings and global presence, driving sustained top-line growth and profitability.
  
• Mounting tariffs, pricing constraints, regulatory risks, and overreliance on mature markets threaten Getinge's margins, revenue growth, and strategic flexibility.

Catalysts

Provides products and solutions for operating rooms, intensive-care units, and sterilization departments in Sweden and internationally.

• Continued strong organic sales growth in key segments such as ventilators, ECLS consumables, infection control, and surgical workflows is being driven by long-term demand factors like a growing and aging global population requiring advanced care; this underpins a resilient recurring revenue stream and supports consistent revenue growth.
  
• Growing market adoption of technologically advanced products (e.g., digital health solutions, connected devices, Paragonix organ transport systems, and the XEN disinfection portfolio) positions Getinge to benefit from increased digitalization and automation in hospitals; this should drive higher-margin software and service revenues, enhancing earnings quality and margin expansion.
  
• Ongoing operational efficiency efforts-including proactive supply chain regionalization, productivity-driven cost reductions, and better quality/compliance processes-are expected to counter balance cost headwinds and support gradual improvement in gross and net margins, boosting long-term profitability.
  
• Strategic acquisitions and successful integration (e.g., Paragonix, Healthmark/Quadralene) continue to expand the product portfolio into high-growth niches such as sterile transfer and organ transplantation; this increases the addressable market, drives cross-selling opportunities, and diversifies revenue geography, contributing to top-line growth.
  
• Getinge's leadership in infection control and sterilization-segments that benefit from tightening global hygiene and regulatory standards-positions the company to capture increasing demand fueled by ongoing investment in hospital infrastructure and rising healthcare spending, especially in emerging markets, supporting long-term revenue growth and margin resilience.

Getinge Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Getinge's revenue will grow by 4.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 4.2% today to 9.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach SEK 4.0 billion (and earnings per share of SEK 14.66) by about July 2028, up from SEK 1.5 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as SEK3.3 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.9x on those 2028 earnings, down from 35.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Medical Equipment industry at 45.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.02%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Getinge Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Intensifying global tariffs, particularly between the EU, US, and China, are adding substantial direct costs (SEK 110 million in Q2 alone), with no clear end in sight or ability to pass costs fully to customers, pressuring both revenue growth and net margins over the long term.
  
• An increasing portion of long-term contracts with limited pricing flexibility prevents Getinge from offsetting rising input, tariff, and FX costs through higher prices, risking prolonged margin compression and weaker earnings.
  
• Getinge remains exposed to quality and regulatory risks-especially in segments like balloon pumps and ECMO-where ongoing restrictions impede growth in installed base and market share, and elevated compliance costs persist, dampening net profitability potential.
  
• Ongoing dependence on mature Western markets (US, EU, Germany) exposes the company to stagnating growth relative to emerging markets, amplifying the risk of revenue stagnation as hospital infrastructure upgrades slow and domestic competition intensifies.
  
• Execution risks around supply chain regionalization, cost reduction programs, and productivity improvements could lead to under-delivery if geopolitical or regulatory developments outpace adaptation-this threatens both future revenue growth and the ability to expand margins as planned.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of SEK233.333 for Getinge based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of SEK300.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just SEK165.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be SEK40.9 billion, earnings will come to SEK4.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.0%.
  
• Given the current share price of SEK193.8, the analyst price target of SEK233.33 is 16.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.