Tyra Hub's Expansion Will Drive Increased Production Stability By 2025

Key Takeaways

• Successful exploration and increased production are expected to enhance long-term revenue potential and maintain stable output in the coming years.
  
• A favorable gas price environment and significant tax losses are likely to improve profit margins and positively impact net earnings.
  
• High debt and financial obligations may strain liquidity, while production and price fluctuations create revenue and earnings instability for BlueNord.

Catalysts

An oil and gas company, focuses on the exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbon resources in Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

• The Tyra Hub is expected to more than double BlueNord's production, driving significant revenue growth as it reaches maximum capacity and maintains stable production in 2025.
  
• Exploration success with the HEMJ well has exceeded forecasts, adding substantial reserves and accelerating production, which is projected to prolong Tyra's plateau, enhancing long-term revenue potential.
  
• A supportive gas price environment with forward curves averaging $15 per Mcf through 2026 is expected to bolster revenues and profit margins, given BlueNord's increased gas output.
  
• Substantial tax losses nearing $1 billion will likely result in a reduced marginal tax rate, positively impacting net earnings through 2026.
  
• BlueNord's commitment to return 50%-70% of operating cash flow as distributions to shareholders aligns with strong cash flow expectations, aiming to enhance earnings per share and boost shareholder value.

BlueNord Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming BlueNord's revenue will grow by 17.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -10.1% today to 15.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $172.2 million (and earnings per share of $6.29) by about May 2028, up from $-70.8 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $199.0 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $149.1 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 13.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -21.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Oil and Gas industry at 4.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.51% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.84%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BlueNord Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The Tyra ramp-up is subject to weather conditions and operational challenges, which could delay production plateau and affect revenue and earnings stability.
  
• Fluctuations in commodity prices, especially gas, can impact BlueNord's revenue, given the reliance on favorable market conditions for hedged gas pricing.
  
• Dependence on successful regulatory and financial completion tests for dividend disbursement introduces uncertainty, potentially impacting shareholder confidence and affecting net margins.
  
• High levels of debt and financial obligations, such as refinancing and bonds, could strain liquidity and limit financial flexibility, impacting net earnings.
  
• Operational interruptions, such as damage to mechanical seals and the need for extensive well interventions, pose risks to uninterrupted production, potentially affecting cash flow and revenue.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of NOK728.2 for BlueNord based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of NOK830.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just NOK660.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.2 billion, earnings will come to $172.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 13.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.8%.
• Given the current share price of NOK596.0, the analyst price target of NOK728.2 is 18.2% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.