Yggdrasil Will Sustain Production But Profit Margins May Shrink Amid Emission Costs

Key Takeaways

• Advances in digitalization and low-emission technologies aim to optimize operations, reduce costs, and improve net margins, enhancing long-term profitability.
  
• Strategic financial management and targeted exploration strategies boost financial stability, enabling growth investments and potentially enriching future revenue streams.
  
• Increasing emissions costs and reliance on key assets may expose Aker BP to operational risks, impacting margins and revenue stability amidst evolving energy policies.

Catalysts

Explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

• Aker BP aims to sustain production above 500,000 barrels per day beyond 2030, driven by their 2 billion barrel opportunity and projects like Yggdrasil and Johan Sverdrup. This supports long-term revenue growth through extended production capacities.
  
• The Yggdrasil project is designed to be technologically advanced and low-emission, powered by renewable electricity from shore, ensuring efficient and cost-effective operations that will likely improve net margins by reducing operational costs and environmental compliance expenses.
  
• Aker BP’s commitment to digitalization, including developments like Agile Asset Management and the ACE toolkit, aims to optimize operations and enhance efficiency, potentially leading to improved net margins and higher earnings through reduced downtime and streamlined processes.
  
• The company’s enhanced financial flexibility, including refinancing short-term maturities with long-term debt, strengthens its balance sheet, supporting financial stability and the capacity for strategic growth investments, which can bolster earnings and shareholder value.
  
• Aker BP’s exploration strategy and M&A considerations focus on maximizing near-field exploration tied to existing assets, potentially increasing reserves and production efficiency with lower upfront costs, which could enhance future revenue streams and profitability.

Aker BP Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Aker BP's revenue will decrease by 1.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 14.8% today to 14.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.7 billion (and earnings per share of $2.64) by about April 2028, down from $1.8 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $2.0 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $1.3 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 12.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from 7.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Oil and Gas industry at 4.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.11% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.3%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Aker BP Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The possibility of emissions costs increasing could weigh on Aker BP's long-term financials by increasing operating expenses and potentially reducing net profit margins.
  
• Uncertainties around global energy transitions and the policy environment may pose risks to future oil and gas demand, impacting Aker BP's long-term revenue projections.
  
• Heavy reliance on a few key assets, such as Johan Sverdrup, for a substantial portion of the production could expose the company to significant operational risks, potentially impacting revenue stability.
  
• High exploration activities and potential delays or cost overruns in major projects like Wisting or Yggdrasil could strain cash flows and increase financial leverage beyond expectations.
  
• The emphasis on production growth through M&A or new projects may increase exposure to integration risks and execution challenges, potentially affecting future earning potential if synergies are not realized as planned.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of NOK267.105 for Aker BP based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of NOK325.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just NOK205.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $11.8 billion, earnings will come to $1.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 12.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
• Given the current share price of NOK221.3, the analyst price target of NOK267.11 is 17.1% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.