Global Streaming And Live Events Will Transform Media Landscape

Key Takeaways

• Expanding into live events, gaming, and international streaming diversifies revenues and boosts margins, making Banijay less dependent on traditional TV.
  
• Strategic acquisitions, cost optimization, and investment in technology strengthen market position, operational efficiency, and recurring income globally.
  
• Heavy dependence on established franchises, lack of direct-to-consumer strategy, and industry shifts to digital and AI-driven formats threaten Banijay's long-term revenue growth and margins.

Catalysts

Engages in the content production, distribution, online sports betting, and gaming businesses in the United States, Europe, and internationally.

• Growing share of revenues from global streaming platforms-now at 20%, up from 17%-indicates accelerating demand for Banijay's content library and premium scripted/non-scripted IP, which should boost overall revenue growth and enhance licensing fee income as streaming platforms expand globally.
  
• Rapid expansion of Banijay's live events and experiences businesses (15% revenue growth in H1), underpinned by increased production of major global sports events and further international rollouts, points to new, diversified high-margin revenue streams and greater resilience outside legacy TV.
  
• Ongoing cost optimization and favorable revenue mix shift toward higher-margin activities (particularly from Banijay Gaming and live events) are supporting improving EBITDA margins (up 160 bps to 19.2%), setting the stage for stronger net margin and earnings performance ahead.
  
• Industry consolidation and Banijay's scale advantages-demonstrated by acquisitions like Lotchi and The Independents and resilient format revenues across multiple territories-position the company to benefit from market share gains and increased negotiating leverage, helping drive both top-line growth and operational efficiency.
  
• International diversification and continued investment in technology (cloud, digital, AI initiatives) strengthen Banijay's ability to scale, reduce costs, and monetize its IP in emerging markets, which should increase recurring revenues and reduce geographic concentration risk.

Banijay Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Banijay Group's revenue will grow by 9.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 4.3% today to 6.3% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €408.4 million (and earnings per share of €0.96) by about August 2028, up from €211.8 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as €351.5 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 17.5x on those 2028 earnings, down from 18.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the NL Entertainment industry at 17.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.21%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Banijay Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Heavy reliance on a handful of hit global franchises (e.g., MasterChef, Big Brother, Survivor) and scripted/nonscripted formats exposes Banijay to format fatigue or shifts in audience preference, which could erode recurring content revenues and limit long-term visibility on earnings growth.
  
• Banijay's business remains structurally second-half weighted, with significant quarter-to-quarter volatility and limited visibility in content delivery cycles, making revenues and net margins more unpredictable and potentially exposing the company to negative surprises if anticipated big show deliveries are delayed or underperform.
  
• Despite recent organic growth, Banijay's future M&A-led expansion faces potential hurdles due to global regulatory scrutiny of media consolidation, which could restrict acquisitions, slow inorganic growth, and constrain top-line expansion in a consolidating industry.
  
• Banijay does not currently show significant movement toward proprietary streaming or direct-to-consumer digital platforms, leaving it dependent on external platforms and at risk of lower-margin revenue streams, missing out on higher-margin digital earnings growth in an increasingly fragmented and digital-first media landscape.
  
• Industry-wide shifts toward short-form, user-generated content (e.g., TikTok, YouTube) and growing adoption of AI-driven production may reduce the relevance and pricing power of Banijay's traditional, human-driven content formats, eventually pressuring revenue growth and EBITDA margins as competition intensifies and content buyers reallocate budgets.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €12.275 for Banijay Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €14.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €11.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €6.5 billion, earnings will come to €408.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 17.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of €9.05, the analyst price target of €12.27 is 26.3% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.