Share Buybacks And Capital Management Will Boost Future Shareholder Returns

Key Takeaways

• Continued net interest income expansion and enhanced fee income are driving revenue and earnings growth through diversification and volume growth.
  
• Share buyback plan and capital management strategies suggest strong shareholder returns and the potential for gains in earnings per share.
  
• Rising operating expenses, inflationary pressures, and integration risks could strain net margins and earnings, while policy stock reductions may not meet return expectations.

Catalysts

Through its subsidiaries, provides retail and commercial banking products and services in Japan and internationally.

• Expansion of net interest income through volume growth and interest rate hikes is expected to continue, positively impacting revenue and earnings growth.
  
• Efforts to enhance fee income, including strong performance in assets under management and settlement-related income, are supporting revenue growth and diversification.
  
• The strategic reduction of policy stock holdings and the expected increase in net gains from stocks may contribute to future earnings and improve capital utilization.
  
• Ongoing cost management initiatives and process reforms are aimed at improving net margins by optimizing the cost/income ratio and enabling productivity gains.
  
• A significant share buyback of ¥20 billion and a total shareholder return ratio target of 53.3% indicate strong shareholder returns and potential for EPS growth.

Resona Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Resona Holdings's revenue will decrease by -3.9% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 21.5% today to 30.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ¥236.2 billion (and earnings per share of ¥104.91) by about December 2027, up from ¥190.7 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting ¥326.9 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting ¥202.0 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 13.2x on those 2027 earnings, down from 14.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the JP Banks industry at 13.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.65% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.76%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Resona Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Rising operating expenses due to investment in human capital and IT could increase faster than revenues, potentially putting pressure on net margins.
  
• Interest rate hikes may positively impact net interest income, but the impacts of monetary policy normalization can be unpredictable, which could affect core earnings if assumptions do not materialize.
  
• Inflationary pressures not fully accounted for in expected financial outcomes may result in higher-than-anticipated costs, affecting the bottom line and net margins.
  
• Integration risks related to the Minato Bank operations could lead to unexpected expenses or operational disruptions, impacting net income and earnings.
  
• Heavy reliance on policy-oriented stock holdings reduction for capital allocation might not realize expected gains, affecting the achievement of targets for ROE and earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ¥1171.82 for Resona Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ¥1610.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ¥740.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be ¥787.0 billion, earnings will come to ¥236.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 13.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.8%.
• Given the current share price of ¥1214.0, the analyst's price target of ¥1171.82 is 3.6% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.