Renewable Investments And Cost Reductions Will Secure Future Operational Stability

Key Takeaways

• Enel's focus on regulated grids and renewable capacity aims to ensure stable growth and improved earnings through predictable returns and lower costs.
  
• Efficiency programs and strategic asset management target reduced debt and expenses to boost net margins and net income.
  
• Enel's over-reliance on geographic markets, asset sales, regulatory conditions, and aggressive competition could affect future revenue, market share, and overall financial stability.

Catalysts

Operates as an integrated operator in electricity and gas industries worldwide.

• Enel's strategic focus on increasing investments in regulated grids, particularly in Europe, provides visible and predictable returns, potentially driving stable revenue growth and improved earnings.
  
• The significant increase in renewable capacity, driven by a successful hedging strategy and enhanced storage capacity, underpins future revenue growth while supporting margins as renewable energy operations tend to have lower operational costs.
  
• Ongoing efficiency programs targeting approximately €600 million in cost savings showcase Enel's commitment to improving net margins by reducing operational expenses.
  
• A disciplined execution of the disposal plan and active portfolio management efforts are expected to lower net debt, reducing financial expenses and thereby potentially boosting net income.
  
• Enel's operational strategy, which involves optimizing power and commodity portfolio management, is designed to maximize the value of flexible generation assets, improving the earnings quality by aligning production with customer demand efficiently.

Enel Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Enel's revenue will grow by 4.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 6.6% today to 7.6% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €7.1 billion (and earnings per share of €0.69) by about January 2028, up from €5.4 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as €6.4 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from 13.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Electric Utilities industry at 20.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.34% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.97%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Enel Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Enel's CapEx is heavily concentrated in Europe, particularly in Italy and Spain. This reliance on a few geographic markets may expose the company to local regulatory changes or economic downturns, potentially impacting future revenue growth.
  
• The company's reported EBITDA includes significant capital gains from asset disposals, such as the Peru assets, which are not part of the ordinary business results. This reliance on asset sales for financial performance could be unsustainable in the long run, affecting net margins and earnings stability.
  
• Enel faces potential regulatory uncertainty, particularly in Spain, where the consultation on the new regulatory framework is ongoing. Changes in regulations could impact investment returns and overall profitability, potentially affecting earnings.
  
• The competition in Enel's core markets is increasing, with other players also focusing on renewable energy and integrated business strategies. This could pressure Enel's market share and revenue, especially if their competitive strategies are more successful.
  
• Enel's financial health heavily depends on executing its disposal plan to deleverage. Any delays or unfavorable conditions in closing these deals could impact the company's debt levels and financial stability, potentially affecting earnings and net margins.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €7.97 for Enel based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €9.2, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €6.6.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €93.6 billion, earnings will come to €7.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.
• Given the current share price of €6.89, the analyst's price target of €7.97 is 13.6% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.