Expansion In Germany And Acquisitions Like Econis And Edge&Cloud Will Strengthen Future EBITDA And Margins

Key Takeaways

• Continued expansion in Germany is projected to drive revenue and EBITDA growth, with strategic acquisitions enhancing margins.
  
• Stable recurrent revenue and upsell opportunities improve future revenue predictability and growth prospects.
  
• WIIT's reliance on acquisitions for growth and existing financial challenges poses risks to profitability and stability if synergies and contract renewals falter.

Catalysts

Provides cloud services for various businesses in Italy and internationally.

• Continued expansion and synergies in Germany, where organic growth outpaced Italy, are expected to drive high single-digit revenue growth, impacting both revenue and EBITDA positively.
  
• Strategic acquisitions, such as the Econis integration and Edge&Cloud, are expected to contribute incremental revenue and synergistic advantages, likely enhancing EBITDA margins.
  
• The enhancement in recurrent revenue, particularly in Germany, where 99% of core revenue is recurrent, provides a stable and predictable revenue stream, bolstering future revenue growth.
  
• The recent upsell of contracts and extensions in core markets indicate potential for increased average revenue per user (ARPU), improving overall revenue growth.
  
• Anticipated reduction in CapEx spending coupled with increased EBITDA from organic and M&A growth is expected to enhance net margins and cash flow generation, potentially driving future earnings growth.

Wiit Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Wiit's revenue will grow by 10.1% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.7% today to 15.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €30.2 million (and earnings per share of €1.09) by about February 2028, up from €11.7 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 31.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 40.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the IT IT industry at 13.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.09% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.52%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Wiit Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• WIIT's revenue growth has been driven primarily by acquisitions rather than organic sales, indicating potential challenges in sustaining revenue and profit increases through sales development alone. (Revenue, Net Margin)
  
• The company's significant net debt of €161 million, inclusive of acquisitions, could pressure financials if cash generation doesn't keep pace, especially if economic conditions or acquisition prospects change unfavorably. (Earnings, Net Margins)
  
• The integration of recently acquired companies, like Econis and Edge&Cloud, poses risks of margin dilution and unforeseen costs, which might affect WIIT's overall profitability if synergies are not realized as planned. (Net Margins, EBIT)
  
• WIIT faces potential discrepancies in the operational performance across regions, such as lower organic growth in Italy compared to Germany, which may result in inconsistent earnings contributions and financial performance across its markets. (Revenue, Earnings)
  
• Given the dependence on successful contract renewals and acquisition synergies, WIIT's future financial stability is vulnerable to any delays or failures in closing crucial large contracts or extracting expected synergies from acquisitions. (Revenue, Earnings)

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €25.8 for Wiit based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €28.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €23.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €201.4 million, earnings will come to €30.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 31.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.5%.
  
• Given the current share price of €18.02, the analyst price target of €25.8 is 30.2% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.