Expanded Capacity And Reliable PPAs Will Shape India's Energy Future

Key Takeaways

• Aggressive capacity expansion and long-term agreements position the company to benefit from rising energy demand and ensure stable, predictable revenue streams.
  
• Operational improvements, internal funding, and favorable regulations enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and strengthen financial stability and profitability.
  
• Heavy dependence on coal power and long-term contracts exposes Adani Power to regulatory, credit, and ESG financing risks, while commodity price volatility threatens earnings stability.

Catalysts

Engages in the generation, transmission, and sale of electricity under long term power purchase agreements (PPAs), supplemental PPAs, medium and short term PPAs, and on merchant basis in India.

• Adani Power is aggressively expanding capacity with ongoing projects adding over 12 GW by 2030 and has already locked in critical components and land, positioning it to meet India's growing electricity demand driven by rapid urbanization, industrialization, and higher per capita consumption, which should support revenue and long-term earnings growth.
  
• The company is increasingly entering into long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with various state DISCOMs (e.g., recently signed 1,600 MW PPA with Uttar Pradesh), providing revenue stability, predictable cash flows, and assurance during future power demand upcycles, likely improving net margin and earnings quality.
  
• Enhanced operational efficiency from overhauling newly acquired assets (e.g., Coastal, Lanco, Vidarbha), advanced planning, and focus on in-house project management is expected to improve plant availability and load factors, reducing costs and supporting better bottom-line performance.
  
• The company is funding most expansion activity through internal accruals and robust operating cash flows (over ₹21,000 crore annual FFO), which helps maintain a debt-light profile, lowers financing costs, and supports sustainable future net margins and financial stability.
  
• Regulatory changes reducing capital expenditure burdens (e.g., removal of FGD requirement on new plants, lowering project costs) and improved receivables collection from key clients (e.g., Bangladesh Power Development Board) are already unlocking liquidity and directly benefitting free cash flow and profitability.

Adani Power Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Adani Power's revenue will grow by 15.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 21.6% today to 22.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₹189.6 billion (and earnings per share of ₹43.65) by about August 2028, up from ₹119.4 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as ₹143.7 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 18.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the IN Renewable Energy industry at 30.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.45% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 13.86%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Adani Power Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Heavy reliance on thermal (coal-based) power generation exposes Adani Power to long-term risks as global and domestic decarbonization initiatives intensify, potentially leading to declining demand, stricter emission norms, and increased regulatory costs, which could negatively impact future revenues and profit margins.
  
• Capital-intensive expansion of coal-based power capacity, even if largely self-funded, could result in stranded assets or overcapacity if the secular trend towards renewables accelerates, thus reducing utilization rates and return on capital employed, and putting downward pressure on future earnings.
  
• Adani Power's stable revenues and margins heavily depend on long-term PPAs with DISCOMs; however, many state electricity boards have weak financials, creating credit risk and potential delays or defaults in payment that could impair cash flows and overall earnings quality.
  
• Growing policy and investor preference for ESG-compliant companies may restrict Adani Power's future access to affordable capital, raising refinancing risks and financing costs-negatively affecting net margins and constraining their ability to fund new growth projects.
  
• Exposure to volatile commodity prices (especially imported coal) and merchant tariff fluctuations was cited by management as a key driver of revenue variability, meaning an adverse movement in fuel costs or short-term market rates could sharply reduce EBITDA and net profit, particularly as the mix shifts with capacity additions.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₹653.333 for Adani Power based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be ₹841.3 billion, earnings will come to ₹189.6 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 13.9%.
  
• Given the current share price of ₹567.45, the analyst price target of ₹653.33 is 13.1% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.