5G Rollout And Renewable Energy Propel Telecom Growth Amid Challenges

Key Takeaways

• Strong 5G rollout and favorable regulations position Indus Towers for revenue growth and expanded telecom infrastructure.
  
• Improved cost efficiency through reduced diesel use and renewables will enhance net margins, while share buybacks boost EPS confidence.
  
• Financial stability is at risk from overdue payments and dependency on major customers, coupled with operational and tax challenges impacting margins and revenue.

Catalysts

A telecom infrastructure company, engages in the operation and maintenance of wireless communication towers and related infrastructures for various telecom service providers in India.

• The strong demand outlook for telecom infrastructure, particularly due to the rapid 5G rollout in India, positions Indus Towers to benefit from increased loading revenues and new site demands, which are expected to drive revenue growth.
  
• Regulatory changes, such as the Bharat Nidhi rule and Right of Way rules, provide a more conducive environment for telecom infrastructure deployment, likely enhancing future revenue opportunities.
  
• Continued improvement in cost efficiency, particularly through reductions in diesel consumption and expanded use of renewable energy, is set to optimize energy costs and improve net margins.
  
• The anticipated incremental tenancies from major customers and additional tenancy growth suggest potential for increased revenue, particularly as customers expand their 4G and 5G capabilities.
  
• The completion of a significant share buyback indicates potential for improved Earnings Per Share (EPS) and signals confidence in the company’s financial health.

Indus Towers Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Indus Towers's revenue will grow by 7.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 25.8% today to 22.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₹82.3 billion (and earnings per share of ₹29.81) by about November 2027, up from ₹75.4 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting ₹95.8 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting ₹55.6 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 19.1x on those 2027 earnings, up from 11.5x today. This future PE is about the same as the current PE for the IN Telecom industry at 19.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.54% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.15%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Indus Towers Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Despite sustained collections from major customers, the company still faces significant overdue payments, which could impact its cash flow and financial stability if not resolved soon. [Finance/Cash Flow]
  
• Weather-related disruptions have affected network uptime and could continue to do so, potentially hindering future operational performance and customer satisfaction, thus affecting revenue. [Revenue/Operational Performance]
  
• The heavy reliance on two major customers, with uncertainty around Vodafone Idea's financial health and rollouts, poses a risk to consistent tenancy growth and associated revenue streams. [Revenue/Customer Dependency]
  
• The lingering GST and income tax issues present a financial risk, with the potential for substantial liabilities that could decrease net profit margins. [Earnings/Tax Liabilities]
  
• While the expansion in renewable energy initiatives is promising, the short-term high CapEx and reduced energy margins due to reconciliation challenges might pressure net margins. [Net Margins/Cost Efficiency]

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₹404.5 for Indus Towers based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₹575.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₹280.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be ₹361.8 billion, earnings will come to ₹82.3 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of ₹328.15, the analyst's price target of ₹404.5 is 18.9% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.