International Expansion And New Products Will Attract Future NRI Investors

Key Takeaways

• International expansion strategy targeting NRIs and product diversification through GIFT City aims to increase revenue streams from international investors.
  
• SEBI’s framework and focus on SIPs and equity funds encourage innovative strategies and revenue growth through improved market share and diversified offerings.
  
• Changes in tax rates and dependency on SIPs, along with regulatory pressures and competition, could negatively impact HDFC Asset Management's margins and revenue growth.

Catalysts

A publically owned investment manager.

• HDFC AMC is expanding into the international market, particularly targeting Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) through its subsidiary in GIFT City, with plans to launch multiple new products. This could lead to increased revenue from international investors.
  
• SEBI's new asset class framework is creating opportunities for HDFC AMC to offer innovative investment strategies with greater flexibility and risk-reward profiles, potentially boosting future revenue streams.
  
• Improved market share in equity-oriented funds and focus on systematic investment plans (SIPs) is contributing to healthy flow market share. This could drive revenue growth as the mix shifts towards equity investments, which typically have higher fees.
  
• The introduction of increased AUM and recent expense rationalizations have slightly softened the pace of declining equity margins, aiming to stabilize operating margins and improve net margins by managing commission structures effectively.
  
• The establishment of a private credit team and anticipated product launches in alternatives suggest revenue diversification and growth opportunities beyond traditional mutual funds, potentially impacting future earnings positively.

HDFC Asset Management Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming HDFC Asset Management's revenue will grow by 14.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 60.2% today to 61.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₹34.2 billion (and earnings per share of ₹151.61) by about December 2027, up from ₹22.1 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as ₹28.5 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 47.0x on those 2027 earnings, up from 44.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the IN Capital Markets industry at 23.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.8% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 13.58%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

HDFC Asset Management Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The impact of changes in capital gains tax rate and the deferred tax liability adjustment could negatively affect the company's net margins as shown by the ₹69.75 crores additional charge on PAT for the last quarter.
  
• Increasing AUM in large schemes may lead to further yield compression due to regulatory TR slabs, thereby impacting future revenue growth for actively managed equity funds.
  
• High dependency on SIPs and systematic transactions for growth may be a risk if market sentiment changes and SIP contribution declines, potentially affecting net inflows and future revenues.
  
• Competition in the mutual fund industry, including from new entrants and NFOs, could result in market share loss or require increased spending on distribution and marketing, affecting net earnings.
  
• Execution risks associated with fruitfully tapping into the NRI investor market through new products in GIFT City could delay potential revenue enhancement and growth opportunities.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₹4875.6 for HDFC Asset Management based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₹5500.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₹3600.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be ₹55.4 billion, earnings will come to ₹34.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 47.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 13.6%.
• Given the current share price of ₹4543.85, the analyst's price target of ₹4875.6 is 6.8% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.