Integration With Vidal Health Will Strengthen Future Health Tech Prospects

Key Takeaways

• Strategic adjustments in Bajaj Finserv's insurance portfolios could drive revenue growth and strengthen market position despite industry challenges.
  
• Bajaj Finserv's healthcare and asset management expansions show potential for increased future profitability and earnings growth.
  
• Allianz's exit and insurance sector challenges may threaten revenue stability, profit margins, and investor confidence, amid significant competition and regulatory changes.

Catalysts

Through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of financial services in India.

• The growth in Bajaj Finserv's insurance companies, BAGIC and BALIC, is set to continue with strategic adjustments in their portfolios, which could drive revenue growth and strengthen market position despite industry challenges.
  
• Bajaj Finserv Health's integration with Vidal Health and its position in the health tech space shows potential for significant future growth, indicating increased revenue contribution and profitability in the coming years.
  
• Bajaj Finserv Direct is moving towards operational breakeven in the next few quarters, with potential for higher future earnings and improved profit margins.
  
• The expectation of increased capital adequacy and growth potential in Bajaj Housing Finance suggests the ability to scale operations, which can enhance revenue and maintain strong net profits.
  
• The consistent expansion in Bajaj Finserv's asset management business, with increasing AUM and streamlined operations, is likely to contribute positively to earnings through higher management fees over time.

Bajaj Finserv Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Bajaj Finserv's revenue will grow by 16.7% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 6.8% today to 10.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₹211.4 billion (and earnings per share of ₹110.99) by about December 2027, up from ₹85.0 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting ₹263.7 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting ₹138.9 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.0x on those 2027 earnings, down from 30.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the IN Diversified Financial industry at 17.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 6.11% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 14.11%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Bajaj Finserv Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The decision by Allianz to exit its joint venture with Bajaj Finserv introduces uncertainty about future ownership and strategic alliances, which could impact revenue stability and investor confidence.
  
• Declines in the growth of the Crop and Government Health insurance sectors, coupled with price pressures, suggest potential risks to future revenue expansion.
  
• Concerns about stagnant pricing in key insurance segments like motor insurance may affect profit margins if acquisition costs increase but premiums do not.
  
• The emergence of significant headwinds from regulatory and market changes in life insurance could lead to margin compression, affecting earnings growth.
  
• High competition and market volatility in the insurance sector can impact Bajaj Finserv’s ability to maintain revenue growth and profitability, despite strong market positioning.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₹1869.0 for Bajaj Finserv based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₹2350.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₹1350.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be ₹1977.4 billion, earnings will come to ₹211.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 14.1%.
• Given the current share price of ₹1630.75, the analyst's price target of ₹1869.0 is 12.7% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.