China Low-Carbon Policies Will Boost Renewable Energy Transition

Key Takeaways

• Rapid renewable expansion and policy support position the company for sustained revenue growth and improved earnings quality amid China's shift to low-carbon energy.
  
• Cost optimization and market-driven power pricing enhance margins and operating cash flow, while rising high-margin renewables reduce earnings volatility and boost returns.
  
• Heavy reliance on coal, renewable project challenges, exposure to fuel price swings, high debt, and market reforms all threaten future profitability and financial stability.

Catalysts

Generates and sells electric power to the regional or provincial grid companies in the People’s Republic of China and internationally.

• Huaneng Power International's aggressive expansion of renewable capacity (adding 6.26 GW renewables in the first half, with 19.13 GW more under construction and a focus on wind and solar) positions the company to benefit from China's ongoing push for low-carbon energy and policy support for green investment, leading to future revenue growth and enhanced long-term earnings quality.
  
• Ongoing improvements in cost structure, particularly through optimized coal procurement and a significant decrease in unit fuel costs, combined with government policies supporting stable financing, are likely to further improve net margins and support strong operating cash flow.
  
• Increasing proportion of high-margin renewable revenues and sustained policy-driven prioritization of renewables (accounting for over 39% of capacity and targeted 10 GW of additions this year) should reduce overall earnings volatility and drive structurally higher returns over time.
  
• The transition towards market-based power pricing and growing exposure to ancillary services and capacity payments (including spot market trading and frequency regulation income) positions Huaneng to capture margin expansion opportunities as China's electricity markets liberalize, supporting both revenue and net margin upside.
  
• China's urbanization, economic growth, and the secular electrification of transport and industry will continue underpinning electricity demand growth, providing a long-term tailwind for HPI's capacity utilization and revenue base.

Huaneng Power International Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Huaneng Power International's revenue will decrease by 1.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.8% today to 5.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach CN¥14.3 billion (and earnings per share of CN¥0.77) by about August 2028, up from CN¥9.1 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as CN¥11.2 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.5x on those 2028 earnings, down from 8.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Renewable Energy industry at 9.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 13.19%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Huaneng Power International Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Persistent coal dependence poses a risk: Despite ongoing renewable additions, less than 40% of Huaneng Power International's installed capacity is low-carbon/clean, and asset impairments (CN¥260 million) related to coal-fired units highlight policy-driven shutdowns and operational risks, which could erode future revenues and net margins.
  
• Declining utilization and lower tariffs in renewables: The company faces decreasing utilization hours and quarter-on-quarter drops in wind and solar tariffs, with a meaningful number of solar and wind projects reporting losses, thereby threatening long-term earnings quality and return on investment for new capacity.
  
• Vulnerability to coal market volatility: Though strong cost management aided recent margin expansion, nearly half of coal procurement remains outside long-term contracts, exposing Huaneng to future coal price rebounds and fuel cost spikes that could compress profit margins and reduce earnings stability.
  
• Heightened capital expenditure and leverage constraints: Aggressive renewable build-out and continued high capital expenditures, coupled with a still-elevated debt-to-asset ratio (64.5%) and sizable perpetual bonds, may strain free cash flow, increase financing costs (especially if policy tailwinds fade), and limit dividend growth potential.
  
• Structural power market reforms and capacity curtailment: Increasing adoption of power spot markets and rising renewable penetration are creating oversupply and instances of negative prices, leading to lower coal plant utilization, unstable tariffs, and pressure on revenues and viability of legacy thermal assets.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of HK$5.825 for Huaneng Power International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of HK$6.72, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just HK$4.85.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be CN¥245.8 billion, earnings will come to CN¥14.3 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 13.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of HK$5.49, the analyst price target of HK$5.82 is 5.7% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.