Key Takeaways
- Expanding into new categories, direct-to-consumer channels, and emerging markets supports growth, margin expansion, and resilience against market volatility.
- Sustainability initiatives and ongoing innovation drive brand loyalty, enable premium pricing, and strengthen long-term revenue potential.
- Concentrated U.S. exposure, channel disruption, inflexible cost structure, weakening cash flow, and dependence on premium branding heighten risks to earnings and long-term growth.
Catalysts
About Fiskars Oyj Abp- Manufactures and markets consumer products for indoor and outdoor living in Europe, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific.
- Strong double-digit sales growth in China, supported by expansion into new categories (such as branded water bottles) and geographic broadening of core Nordic and Danish brands, positions Fiskars to capitalize on the rising affluence and expanding middle class in Asia-likely supporting future top-line growth and margin expansion as emerging market sales mix improves.
- Increasing direct-to-consumer sales (including e-commerce and own stores/outlets) continue to grow, with digital investments and channel shift already delivering margin benefits and improved customer data-pointing to structurally higher gross margins and improved earnings quality long-term.
- Fiskars' ongoing sustainability initiatives and improvements in circularity and emission targets enable the company to align with consumers' growing preference for ethically-produced, environmentally-friendly products-underpinning premium pricing, brand loyalty, and long-term revenue resilience.
- Recent and planned product innovations and category expansions (including successful turnarounds of struggling brands like Iittala and new launches set for H2) demonstrate the company's ability to drive organic growth, defend market share, and mitigate risks of brand stagnation, with positive implications for both revenues and profitability.
- Active cost optimization, supply chain adjustments in response to tariffs, and productivity improvements (including rebasing sourcing and OpEx rightsizing) are expected to mitigate margin headwinds and support EBITDA margin and free cash flow recovery in H2 2024 and beyond, enhancing earnings power.
Fiskars Oyj Abp Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Fiskars Oyj Abp's revenue will grow by 2.9% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 1.4% today to 7.2% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach €89.8 million (and earnings per share of €1.11) by about July 2028, up from €15.6 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 74.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Consumer Durables industry at 45.2x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.12% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.37%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Fiskars Oyj Abp Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Heavy revenue dependence on the U.S. market (30% of group sales/50% of Fiskars BA sales), combined with significant exposure to tariffs on Asia-sourced products, creates earnings volatility and downside risk if trade tensions persist or escalate-negatively affecting revenue, gross margin, and EBIT.
- Structural challenges in key distributor/retailer channels-particularly U.S. brick-and-mortar declines, department store financial distress, and distributor bankruptcies-increase risk of persistent top-line weakness and channel disruption, depressing sales and cash generation.
- Process industry manufacturing logic (e.g., Waterford crystal) results in negative operational leverage, with declining volumes hitting gross margins hard during slow seasons and creating inflexible cost structures that heighten long-term margin risk during downturns.
- Increased inventory levels, declining volumes, and deteriorating working capital drove significantly lower operating cash flow and pushed net debt/EBITDA well above target; if weakness persists, deleveraging may stall and constrain future investment, impacting long-term earnings growth.
- Reliance on premium branding and wholesale channels in mature markets, coupled with limited geographic diversification and episodic brand relevance challenges (e.g., Waterford, Iittala before repositioning), exposes Fiskars to consumer preference shifts, competitive threats, and revenue stagnation if innovation or market adaptation lags.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of €13.733 for Fiskars Oyj Abp based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €15.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €12.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €1.2 billion, earnings will come to €89.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
- Given the current share price of €14.44, the analyst price target of €13.73 is 5.1% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.