Last Update 11 Dec 25

BCE: Share Price Will Rise On Clearer Outlook And Recent Rating Upgrades

Analysts have nudged their average price target for BCE modestly higher to C$34 to C$37 per share, citing improved confidence in the company’s multi year outlook, a better growth and balance sheet trajectory, and expectations for gradual revenue and EBITDA reacceleration from 2026.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates reflect a more constructive stance on BCE, with several firms lifting ratings and targets as they recalibrate models to the company’s longer term guidance and post selloff valuation.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to improved visibility on BCE’s outlook through 2028, arguing that clearer guidance supports greater confidence in execution and long term growth.
Upgrades to Buy and Outperform, alongside price target increases to around C$37, highlight a view that the current share price underestimates the company’s medium term revenue and EBITDA reacceleration.
Analysts cite a healthier balance sheet trajectory and a better growth profile than in recent years as reasons to expect a gradual rerating as fundamentals strengthen.
Some see the recent share price weakness as creating an attractive entry point ahead of the expected inflection in revenue and EBITDA beginning in 2026.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts, or those maintaining more neutral stances, view the upgrades and target hikes as already reflecting a significant portion of the anticipated 2026 to 2028 growth, limiting near term multiple expansion.
There is lingering caution around BCE’s ability to deliver on a “gradual and sustained” acceleration in revenue and EBITDA, with execution risk seen as a key constraint on valuation upside.
Some investors remain focused on sector level headwinds, including competition and capital intensity, which could pressure free cash flow and slow balance sheet improvement if not carefully managed.

What's in the News

BCE renewed its normal course issuer bid on the TSX, allowing repurchases of up to 10% of the public float of each series of its listed First Preferred Shares between November 11, 2025 and November 10, 2026, with all repurchased shares to be cancelled (Key Developments).
The company plans to use an automatic securities purchase plan to buy back preferred shares even during blackout periods. This reflects management’s view that the shares may trade below intrinsic value at times (Key Developments).
OverActive Media extended its partnership with Bell Canada by two years to September 30, 2027, maintaining Bell as exclusive telecom sponsor in Canada and retaining naming rights to the Bell Fibe Zone training facility in Toronto (Key Developments).
BCE issued new earnings guidance, targeting approximately $24.7 billion in revenue for 2025 and projecting revenue growth to a range of $26.2 billion to $27.8 billion by 2028 (Key Developments).
BCE Inc. (TSX:BCE.PRT) was removed from the S&P/TSX Preferred Share Index, affecting its visibility among index-tracking and benchmark-constrained investors (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately CA$36.47 per share, indicating a stable intrinsic value estimate despite market volatility.
Discount Rate: Risen slightly from 7.24% to about 7.59%, implying a modest increase in the assumed cost of capital and risk profile.
Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged at roughly 2.13% annually, reflecting a steady outlook for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: Flat at about 4.87%, suggesting no material shift in long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: Increased marginally from 34.20x to about 34.54x, which points to a slightly higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Expanding fiber network and AI-driven solutions are fueling revenue growth, margin expansion, and diversification into high-margin enterprise segments.
Digital automation and bundled offerings are reducing costs, increasing customer retention, and enhancing earnings resilience.
Regulatory changes, competitive pressures, high capital intensity, and legacy media declines together threaten BCE's revenue growth, margins, and capacity to expand or maintain dividends.

Catalysts

About BCE

A communications company, provides wireless, wireline, internet, streaming services, and television (TV) services to residential, business, and wholesale customers in Canada.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The rapid expansion of BCE's fiber network, further accelerated by the Ziply Fiber acquisition, positions the company to capitalize on rising demand for high-speed broadband amid ongoing digital infrastructure buildout in North America, supporting future revenue growth and margin expansion.
Surging data consumption from streaming, cloud, and AI applications is increasing network utilization, which underpins persistent ARPU improvements and generates higher incremental revenues and earnings from both wireless and wireline segments.
Momentum in BCE's AI-powered enterprise solutions (Ateko, cybersecurity, and Bell AI Fabric) is opening up new high-margin business lines, benefiting from the proliferation of AI workloads and digital transformation among Canadian enterprises, with positive implications for consolidated revenues and long-term EBITDA growth.
Customer-first digital automation initiatives (e.g., AI-powered diagnostics, self-installation, and virtual assistants) are driving down operating costs and customer churn, translating into higher net margins and improving free cash flow generation over time.
Effective cross-selling of bundled wireless and internet offerings, as well as BCE's growing scale in converged services, are boosting multi-product penetration and customer retention, supporting both top-line growth and earnings resilience across economic cycles.

BCE Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming BCE's revenue will grow by 2.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 1.8% today to 10.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach CA$2.8 billion (and earnings per share of CA$2.96) by about September 2028, up from CA$433.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 72.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the CA Telecom industry at 11.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.22% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.12%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BCE Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The federal government's decision to expand mandatory wholesale access without altering CRTC's framework is prompting BCE to scale back Canadian fiber build-out, potentially capping fiber network expansion at around 8 million homes-this regulatory intervention could slow long-term revenue growth and pressure margins.
Persistent competitive pricing pressures in wireless have resulted in declining service revenue (down 0.3% YoY) and ARPU, with improvement dependent on maintaining current pricing stability; ongoing intense competition and future market shifts could further erode net margins and profitability.
BCE's outsize capital investment requirements, including increased leverage from the Ziply Fiber acquisition (net debt leverage is expected to rise to 3.8x by year-end 2025) and near-term high CapEx intensity, may strain free cash flow and limit available earnings to fund new growth or support ongoing dividends.
Secular declines in legacy broadcast media, continued weakness in traditional TV advertising, and radio station divestitures mean BCE's legacy media businesses face long-term margin compression and revenue headwinds that might not be offset by digital gains.
Slower fiber expansion in Canada due to regulatory changes and plateauing subscriber growth could limit the base for future broadband revenue growth, while the high dividend payout ratio and increasing compliance or CapEx burdens (especially related to ESG and network modernization) could further constrain net earnings and margin expansion.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$35.412 for BCE based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$45.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$30.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be CA$26.0 billion, earnings will come to CA$2.8 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.1%.
Given the current share price of CA$33.84, the analyst price target of CA$35.41 is 4.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Improved Long-Term Outlook And Ongoing Risks Will Shape Performance Through 2028