BITF: Project Level Financing Will Accelerate Expansion Of AI And HPC Campus

Analysts have lifted their Bitfarms price target to $7 from about $3, reflecting higher fair value estimates tied to accelerating AI and high performance computing demand, as well as expanded project-level financing for its growing data center pipeline.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlight that the higher price target reflects improved conviction in Bitfarms' ability to monetize accelerating demand for high performance computing and AI infrastructure. Updated sector estimates and a more robust project financing framework are seen as key supports for the revised valuation.

They note that recent sector-wide revisions have lifted price targets and medium term forecasts for peers, reinforcing the view that Bitfarms' growth runway is still in the early stages. Even after a strong year to date move in the stock, analysts argue that the company remains leveraged to structural AI and data center demand rather than short term trading dynamics.

At the same time, investors are watching execution closely as Bitfarms transitions from a primarily self funded model to a more complex mix of project level financing and large scale development. The pace of deployments, cost discipline, and ability to secure long term, high quality counterparties are seen as critical drivers of whether the stock can sustain or exceed the new target levels.

With a large development pipeline and expanding access to capital, the debate now centers on how efficiently Bitfarms can convert its megawatt pipeline into contracted, cash generating assets, and how resilient demand will remain if macro or AI spending trends slow.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the move to project level financing and the additional capital drawdown as reducing balance sheet risk while enabling faster build out of the Panther Creek AI and HPC campus, supporting higher growth assumptions in their models.
The sizeable development pipeline, including over 1 GW of potential capacity, is viewed as evidence that Bitfarms can scale into hyperscaler and cloud demand, justifying multiple expansion versus prior cycles.
Stronger sector level estimates for HPC focused companies and high visibility into AI driven power needs support higher long term revenue and EBITDA forecasts, which underpin the increased fair value range.
Recent AI and cloud partnership activity, including large tech companies securing incremental capacity, is seen as a validation of Bitfarms' strategy to focus on power rich campuses tailored to next generation compute workloads.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that the share price has already moved sharply higher since midyear, leaving less margin of safety if AI infrastructure spending slows or if project timelines slip.
Execution risk around delivering Phase 1 of Panther Creek on time and on budget, while simultaneously advancing a multi gigawatt pipeline, could pressure returns if costs rise or utilization ramps more slowly than projected.
Increased reliance on project level financing introduces potential refinancing and counterparty risks, which could weigh on valuation multiples if credit conditions tighten.
Competition for hyperscaler and cloud contracts is intensifying, and any sign that Bitfarms is losing share or accepting weaker economics to win deals could challenge the assumptions behind the new price target.

What's in the News

Japan's financial watchdog plans to require crypto exchanges to hold liability reserves to better protect customers in the event of hacks or loss of funds, impacting a range of listed crypto and mining firms including Bitfarms (Nikkei via periodical report).
British Columbia has proposed new power allocation rules that would prioritize natural resources and manufacturing, require AI and data center projects to bid for limited power, and make its existing ban on new cryptocurrency connections permanent, affecting miners such as Bitfarms operating in Canada (The Canadian Press via periodical report).
Bitfarms plans to convert its 18 MW Washington State Bitcoin mining site into a high performance computing and AI facility by December 2026, under a fully funded USD 128 million agreement with a major US data center infrastructure provider. The project will feature advanced liquid cooling and designs compatible with Nvidia GB300 GPUs (company business expansion announcement).
Bitfarms reported that it earned 520 BTC in the third quarter of 2025, up from 414 BTC a year earlier, while nine month production was 1,570 BTC, slightly above the 1,562 BTC produced in the same period of 2024 (company operating results announcement).
Bitfarms appointed Jonathan Mir as Chief Financial Officer, effective October 27, 2025. Outgoing CFO Jeff Lucas will stay on as a strategic advisor through the first quarter of 2026 to support a smooth transition and the company’s pivot toward North American HPC and AI infrastructure projects (company executive changes announcement).

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value estimate has risen significantly, moving from about CA$7.01 to approximately CA$8.50 per share, reflecting higher long term assumptions for AI and HPC monetization.
The Discount Rate has risen slightly, edging up from around 7.55 percent to roughly 7.56 percent, implying a marginally higher required return on future cash flows.
Revenue Growth expectations have fallen meaningfully, moderating from about 47.8 percent to approximately 36.6 percent, indicating a more conservative view on Bitfarms' top line trajectory.
Net Profit Margin assumptions have eased slightly, slipping from roughly 34.5 percent to about 34.1 percent, suggesting a modestly lower profitability outlook.
The Future P/E multiple has risen substantially, increasing from about 13.4x to roughly 23.1x, implying greater valuation support driven by structural AI and data center themes despite more tempered growth estimates.

Expansion into renewable-powered data centers and high-performance computing aligns with green energy trends, unlocking new high-margin revenue streams and regulatory support.
Strategic positioning as a U.S.-based, institutionally accessible company with consistent cash flow and share buybacks supports valuation growth and mitigates shareholder risk.
Regulatory uncertainty, high capital needs, geographic concentration, unproven data center transition, and ongoing Bitcoin exposure create significant execution and financial risks for Bitfarms.

Catalysts

About Bitfarms

Operates integrated bitcoin data centers in Canada, the United States, Paraguay, and Argentina.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Bitfarms is uniquely positioned to capitalize on growing institutional demand for Bitcoin and the increased digitization of financial systems, evidenced by its large, efficient North American mining footprint and growing Bitcoin holdings. This could drive higher future revenue and improved profit margins as Bitcoin adoption continues and prices rise.
Strategic conversion of renewable-powered mining sites (particularly in Quebec and Washington) into high-performance computing (HPC) and AI data centers aligns with the global trend toward green energy in tech infrastructure, potentially granting access to ESG-driven capital and regulatory support, while unlocking new high-margin revenue streams.
Development of large-scale HPC/AI campuses in emerging data center hubs like Pennsylvania-supported by robust enterprise demand, political tailwinds, and partnerships with top-tier developers like T5-positions Bitfarms for sustained earnings growth and margin expansion through long-term, contracted revenue streams.
Bitfarms' proactive transformation into a U.S.-based entity with U.S. GAAP adoption and targeted index inclusion significantly broadens access to institutional capital, which, combined with ongoing positive free cash flow and a clean balance sheet, improves capital efficiency and the potential for valuation multiple expansion.
The ongoing share buyback program, funded by steady mining cash flows, demonstrates management's confidence in undervaluation and supports near-term EPS growth while the market awaits the realization of substantial HPC/AI revenue, further reducing downside risk to shareholders.

Bitfarms Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Bitfarms's revenue will grow by 27.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Bitfarms will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Bitfarms's profit margin will increase from -35.1% to the average CA Software industry of 11.6% in 3 years.
If Bitfarms's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $58.8 million (and earnings per share of $0.09) by about September 2028, up from $-86.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 46.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -8.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the CA Software industry at 66.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.7%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Bitfarms Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's successful pivot from Bitcoin mining to HPC and AI data centers in Quebec is contingent on regulatory approval to convert crypto mining megawatts to data center megawatts-without a clearly defined regulatory path or timeline, any delays or refusals could materially impact Bitfarms' ability to realize anticipated revenue growth and diversify its earnings base.
Bitfarms' growth strategy requires outsized capital expenditures (e.g., ~$400 million for Panther Creek campus buildout) and significant reliance on access to debt financing and the timely drawdown of facilities like Macquarie's; delays, increased financing costs, or inability to meet drawdown conditions may constrain execution and pressure free cash flow and net margins.
The company's shift toward North American operations does not fully eliminate geographic concentration risk, especially in Quebec and Pennsylvania, where future local regulatory, energy pricing, or policy changes could increase operating costs, disrupt operations, or induce sudden capacity reductions-leading to revenue volatility and reduced profitability.
The transition from high-yield Bitcoin mining to long-term contracted HPC and AI data center revenue remains unproven for Bitfarms; prolonged or unsuccessful customer negotiations, slower-than-expected ramp-up of data center utilization, or high execution risk in complex buildouts may hinder expected revenue and EBITDA margin improvements.
With ongoing Bitcoin mining operations funding share buybacks, CapEx, and G&A, Bitfarms remains highly exposed to volatile Bitcoin prices; future price downturns or higher network hash rates could significantly reduce mining revenue and free cash flow, weakening the financial underpinning of its broader transformation strategy.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$4.507 for Bitfarms based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $504.8 million, earnings will come to $58.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 46.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
Given the current share price of CA$1.81, the analyst price target of CA$4.51 is 59.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

BITF: Project Financing Should Accelerate 1.3 GW AI and Data Center Rollout