The Foxhole

The world's in stitches over robots sprinting into walls. I still think they're the answer to our productivity problem.

🎥 The clip that went viral: Humanoid sprinters breaking human records (and parts).
🤖 Hype or the real deal: Our embodied AI deep dive and the supply chain behind it.
🔍 Who's actually building them: See 38 global robotics and automation names.

Fair's fair, it's an entertaining clip. Running too fast to brake, hitting the cushion, followed by a spritz of sparks. However, the same event produced a 100 metre time of 8.64 seconds. Usain Bolt's record is 9.58.

The bigger picture to consider here is that OECD labour productivity growth had a median of just 0.4% across member countries in 2024. Between 2001 and 2007 it was 1.8%. Italy, Japan, the UK and Germany all went backwards. Growth in output per hour is the engine of rising living standards, and it has all but stalled.

Which company in your portfolio do you think helps break the productivity plateau?

Recent contrarian ideas

mitchell_lawler

A landmark settlement is meant to punish Meta (META). If the 1998 tobacco deal is any guide, it might protect it.

🚬 Big tobacco: Since its 1998 settlement, Altria has returned over 12,000% with dividends.
⚖️ Social Narrative: Does Meta's cash machine hold as regulators push harder.

This week Meta (META) agreed to pay about US$18 billion over ten years to settle claims from 29 states that it designed Facebook and Instagram to hook teens. It admitted no wrongdoing and denies the claims.

In 1998, the tobacco industry signed the largest settlement in US history and paid states for decades. Yet it didn't break the leaders, it entrenched them. States became financially tied to the industry's survival, and the sheer cost of settling became a wall new rivals couldn't climb. The punishment became a moat. None of that lessens the human stakes here. But it seems a landmark crackdown on a dominant company can end up shielding it.

Did the states punish Meta, or create a wall its rivals can't climb?

👍🧠🔥🤡

10 comments

mitchell_lawler

Nvidia's (NVDA) record profit had a US$7.8 billion catch. That chunk came from betting on its own customers, not from selling its chips.

🎙️ The tell: "My only regret is I didn't invest more and sooner."
🚀 Where the money flows: The high-growth tech and AI names investors are circling.

Nvidia (NVDA) just posted the biggest quarterly profit in its history, US$59.7 billion. But US$7.8 billion of it didn't come from selling a single chip. It came from gains on Nvidia's investments in companies like OpenAI and SpaceX. Real gains under GAAP, but paper ones that rise and fall with AI valuations. And it's not new, last quarter the figure was US$15.9 billion.

Nvidia increasingly invests in the very customers who then buy its chips, so when their valuations climb, it books a profit. Part of the "record" is a scoreboard of Nvidia's the boom it has helped fuel. The core business is firing on all cylinders, make no mistake, but a loop runs both ways. If AI valuations take some heat, those same gains could start to sting.

How long can the hyperscalers keep funding Nvidia's record?

👍🧠🥱🔥🤡

7 comments

mitchell_lawler

Is Nvidia actually expensive at 32 times earnings? I think that number can melt faster than people realise.

📊 Cheap in disguise?: The most-followed community Narrative has it at 24% undervalued.
📈 Do the math: What analysts expect Nvidia's future earnings to do.
🤖 Beyond the chips: Why Nvidia is pushing into robotics and physical AI.

I think the current calls around Nvidia being overvalued misses the math. Today it's expected to roughly double its earnings per share from a year ago. If the AI data center buildout keeps compounding and the share price stands still, that 32 times could fall toward 13 in a few years.

Of course, that whole case rests on one word: if. Which is what makes tonight one of the four hold-your-breath moments we now get with Nvidia every year, a glimpse of whether the buildout has enough behind it to keep going.

What part of today's Nvidia result deserves the most scrutiny?

👍🧠🥱🔥🤡

10 comments

View all ideas