Newegg Commerce, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NEGG) Shares Climb 50% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:NEGG) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 50% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 5.8% over the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Newegg Commerce's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Specialty Retail industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.4x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Newegg Commerce

How Has Newegg Commerce Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Newegg Commerce over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Newegg Commerce, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Newegg Commerce's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 13%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 29% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 3.6% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Newegg Commerce is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Newegg Commerce's P/S

Newegg Commerce appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We find it unexpected that Newegg Commerce trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Newegg Commerce (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Newegg Commerce, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.