Investors Don't See Light At End Of Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AYTU) Tunnel And Push Stock Down 32%

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:AYTU) shares are down a considerable 32% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 30% share price drop.

After such a large drop in price, Aytu BioPharma may be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x, since almost half of all companies in the Pharmaceuticals industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 2.5x and even P/S higher than 11x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

Check out our latest analysis for Aytu BioPharma

How Has Aytu BioPharma Performed Recently?

Aytu BioPharma could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. The P/S ratio is probably low because investors think this poor revenue performance isn't going to get any better. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Aytu BioPharma will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Aytu BioPharma's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 25%. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 23% overall rise in revenue. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 17% as estimated by the sole analyst watching the company. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 22%.

In light of this, it's understandable that Aytu BioPharma's P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Key Takeaway

Aytu BioPharma's P/S looks about as weak as its stock price lately. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of Aytu BioPharma's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue is contributing to its low P/S. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Having said that, be aware Aytu BioPharma is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.