Earnings Miss: Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (NYSE:MLM) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Martin Marietta Materials missed earnings this time around, with US$1.8b revenue coming in 3.5% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.76 also fell short of expectations by 11%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Martin Marietta Materials

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Martin Marietta Materials' 20 analysts is for revenues of US$6.94b in 2024. This would reflect a credible 4.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 2.1% to US$34.38. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$7.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$36.33 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$623, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Martin Marietta Materials analyst has a price target of US$715 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$370. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 10.0% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that Martin Marietta Materials is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Martin Marietta Materials. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$623, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Martin Marietta Materials going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Martin Marietta Materials (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.