Results: BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Delivered A Surprise Loss And Now Analysts Have New Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:BTSG) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$17.63 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$2.9b beat expectations by 6.9%. Unfortunately statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of the mark, turning in a loss of US$0.04 compared to previous analyst expectations of a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on BrightSpring Health Services after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for BrightSpring Health Services

After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering BrightSpring Health Services are now predicting revenues of US$12.3b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. BrightSpring Health Services is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.63 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$11.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.68 in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on BrightSpring Health Services after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

Curiously, the consensus price target rose 18% to US$20.27. We can only conclude that the forecast revenue growth is expected to offset the impact of the expected fall in earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic BrightSpring Health Services analyst has a price target of US$23.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$17.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting BrightSpring Health Services is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of BrightSpring Health Services'historical trends, as the 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 16% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.7% annually. So although BrightSpring Health Services is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for BrightSpring Health Services. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for BrightSpring Health Services going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether BrightSpring Health Services' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.