ACCO Brands Corporation Just Missed EPS By 42%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a pretty great week for ACCO Brands Corporation (NYSE:ACCO) shareholders, with its shares surging 19% to US$5.81 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$421m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 42% to hit US$0.09 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ACCO Brands

Following last week's earnings report, ACCO Brands' three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.69b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with ACCO Brands forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.81 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.93 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$10.67, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ACCO Brands, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$13.00 and the most bearish at US$7.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ACCO Brands' past performance and to peers in the same industry. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.6% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 1.0% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect ACCO Brands to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ACCO Brands. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for ACCO Brands going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for ACCO Brands (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.