Analysts Are Updating Their ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (TWSE:3711) Estimates After Its Third-Quarter Results

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (TWSE:3711) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.9% to NT$154 in the week after its latest quarterly results. ASE Technology Holding reported NT$160b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of NT$2.17 beat expectations, being 3.4% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for ASE Technology Holding

After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering ASE Technology Holding are now predicting revenues of NT$669.4b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 44% to NT$10.76. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of NT$696.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of NT$11.92 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of NT$172, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on ASE Technology Holding's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on ASE Technology Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NT$213 and the most bearish at NT$115 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await ASE Technology Holding shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting ASE Technology Holding's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 10% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.3% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, ASE Technology Holding is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ASE Technology Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple ASE Technology Holding analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for ASE Technology Holding you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.