A Look At The Fair Value Of Symtek Automation Asia Co., Ltd. (TWSE:6438)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Symtek Automation Asia is NT$250 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of NT$213 suggests Symtek Automation Asia is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Peers of Symtek Automation Asia are currently trading on average at a 221% premium

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Symtek Automation Asia Co., Ltd. (TWSE:6438) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Symtek Automation Asia

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (NT$, Millions)	NT$591.8m	NT$704.5m	NT$800.5m	NT$879.4m	NT$942.7m	NT$993.1m	NT$1.03b	NT$1.07b	NT$1.09b	NT$1.11b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 26.76%	Est @ 19.04%	Est @ 13.63%	Est @ 9.85%	Est @ 7.20%	Est @ 5.35%	Est @ 4.05%	Est @ 3.14%	Est @ 2.50%	Est @ 2.06%
Present Value (NT$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.1%	NT$558	NT$626	NT$670	NT$694	NT$701	NT$696	NT$682	NT$663	NT$641	NT$616

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = NT$6.5b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NT$1.1b× (1 + 1.0%) ÷ (6.1%– 1.0%) = NT$22b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= NT$22b÷ ( 1 + 6.1%)¹⁰= NT$12b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is NT$19b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of NT$213, the company appears about fair value at a 15% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Symtek Automation Asia as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.049. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Symtek Automation Asia

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Symtek Automation Asia, we've put together three essential items you should consider:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Symtek Automation Asia that you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does 6438's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TWSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.