Stock Analysis

Tatra banka's (BSSE:1TAT01DE) 17% CAGR outpaced the company's earnings growth over the same three-year period

BSSE:1TAT01DE
Source: Shutterstock

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, the Tatra banka, a.s. (BSSE:1TAT01DE) share price is up 36% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 20% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 20% in the last year , including dividends .

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Tatra banka investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

See our latest analysis for Tatra banka

SWOT Analysis for Tatra banka

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Banks industry.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Banks market.
  • Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.
Opportunity
  • 1TAT01DE's financial characteristics indicate limited near-term opportunities for shareholders.
  • Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine 1TAT01DE's earnings prospects.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Tatra banka was able to grow its EPS at 11% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. Notably, the 11% average annual share price gain matches up nicely with the EPS growth rate. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Au contraire, the share price change has arguably mimicked the EPS growth.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
BSSE:1TAT01DE Earnings Per Share Growth June 1st 2023

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Tatra banka the TSR over the last 3 years was 60%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Tatra banka shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 20% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 0.5% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Tatra banka better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Tatra banka (at least 2 which don't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Slovakian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Tatra banka is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.