What Hoe Leong Corporation Ltd.'s (SGX:H20) 100% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Hoe Leong Corporation Ltd. (SGX:H20) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 100% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 100%.

After such a large jump in price, Hoe Leong's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.5x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Singapore, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 11x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Hoe Leong has been doing very well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Hoe Leong

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hoe Leong, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Hoe Leong would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 256%. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 7.6% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that Hoe Leong is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Hoe Leong's P/E

Hoe Leong's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Hoe Leong currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Hoe Leong has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.