Earnings Miss: Humana AB (publ) Missed EPS By 5.2% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a good week for Humana AB (publ) (STO:HUM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 3.7% to kr37.55. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of kr10b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 5.2% to hit kr2.87 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Humana

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Humana's three analysts is for revenues of kr10.5b in 2025. This reflects a credible 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 74% to kr4.84. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr10.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr4.93 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of kr48.33, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Humana at kr53.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr44.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Humana's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Humana's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 6.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Humana.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Humana. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Humana going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Humana is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.