Revenue Beat: Saudi Arabian Oil Company Beat Analyst Estimates By 12%

As you might know, Saudi Arabian Oil Company (TADAWUL:2222) recently reported its third-quarter numbers. Results were mixed, with revenues of ر.س465b exceeding expectations, even as earnings per share (EPS) came up short. Statutory earnings were ر.س0.40 per share, -2.3% below whatthe analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Saudi Arabian Oil after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Saudi Arabian Oil

Taking into account the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Saudi Arabian Oil provided consensus estimates of ر.س1.65t revenue in 2025, which would reflect an uneasy 10% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.3% to ر.س1.77. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ر.س1.66t and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س1.79 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of ر.س32.21, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Saudi Arabian Oil analyst has a price target of ر.س37.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ر.س28.02. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 15% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.6% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Saudi Arabian Oil, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also made no changes to their revenue estimates, implying the business is not expected to experience any major impacts to the current trajectory in the near term, even though it is expected to trail the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Saudi Arabian Oil analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Saudi Arabian Oil you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.