Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Company (TADAWUL:1111) Third-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Company (TADAWUL:1111) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.0% to ر.س238 in the past week. Saudi Tadawul Group Holding reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of ر.س359m and statutory earnings per share of ر.س3.25, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Saudi Tadawul Group Holding's six analysts is for revenues of ر.س1.67b in 2025. This reflects a sizeable 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 18% to ر.س5.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ر.س1.67b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س6.19 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at ر.س226, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Saudi Tadawul Group Holding analyst has a price target of ر.س248 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ر.س167. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Saudi Tadawul Group Holding shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Saudi Tadawul Group Holding's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 16% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.6% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Saudi Tadawul Group Holding is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Saudi Tadawul Group Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.