Earnings Miss: Santander Bank Polska S.A. Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Santander Bank Polska S.A. (WSE:SPL) missed earnings with its latest annual results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at zł16b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 11%, coming in at just zł51.01 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Santander Bank Polska

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Santander Bank Polska are now predicting revenues of zł17.2b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 4.1% to zł48.90 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of zł17.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł56.81 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at zł556, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Santander Bank Polska at zł639 per share, while the most bearish prices it at zł450. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Santander Bank Polska's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.8% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Santander Bank Polska is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Santander Bank Polska. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Santander Bank Polska. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Santander Bank Polska going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Santander Bank Polska has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.