Elopak ASA Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in Elopak ASA (OB:ELO) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.6% to close at kr40.40 following the release of its full-year results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €1.2b, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at €0.23 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Elopak

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Elopak's five analysts is for revenues of €1.24b in 2025. This reflects a modest 6.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to €0.26. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €1.24b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.28 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr47.87, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Elopak at kr50.23 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr44.06. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Elopak'shistorical trends, as the 6.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 7.8% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that Elopak is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Elopak. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Elopak. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Elopak going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Elopak you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.