Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Ebusco Holding N.V. (AMS:EBUS) After Its Annual Report

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Ebusco Holding N.V. (AMS:EBUS), which a week ago released some disappointing yearly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 28% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of €2.01. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Ebusco Holding

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ebusco Holding's four analysts is for revenues of €292.3m in 2024. This reflects a sizeable 185% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 91% to €0.17. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €297.3m and losses of €0.026 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a massive increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target held steady at €6.82, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Ebusco Holding analyst has a price target of €16.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €3.50. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Ebusco Holding's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 185% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 20% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.0% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ebusco Holding to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Ebusco Holding analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Ebusco Holding (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.