Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For GDB Holdings Berhad (KLSE:GDB)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 25.3x GDB Holdings Berhad (KLSE:GDB) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Malaysia have P/E ratios under 15x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

GDB Holdings Berhad certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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Is There Enough Growth For GDB Holdings Berhad?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as GDB Holdings Berhad's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 53%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 59% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 16% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that GDB Holdings Berhad is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that GDB Holdings Berhad currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for GDB Holdings Berhad (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're unsure about the strength of GDB Holdings Berhad's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.