Stock Analysis

5.1% earnings growth over 5 years has not materialized into gains for Socfinaf (BDL:SOFAF) shareholders over that period

BDL:SOFAF
Source: Shutterstock

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Socfinaf S.A. (BDL:SOFAF), since the last five years saw the share price fall 33%. Even worse, it's down 18% in about a month, which isn't fun at all.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

View our latest analysis for Socfinaf

SWOT Analysis for Socfinaf

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
Opportunity
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
  • Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine SOFAF's earnings prospects.
Threat
  • No apparent threats visible for SOFAF.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

While the share price declined over five years, Socfinaf actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 28% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we're inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 12% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
BDL:SOFAF Earnings and Revenue Growth July 6th 2023

Take a more thorough look at Socfinaf's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 0.7% in the twelve months, Socfinaf shareholders did even worse, losing 19%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. You might want to assess this data-rich visualization of its earnings, revenue and cash flow.

We will like Socfinaf better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Luxembourger exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Socfinaf is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.