Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9843) released its interim result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.4% to JP¥17,585 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of JP¥446b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 6.0% to hit JP¥144 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Nitori Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, Nitori Holdings' ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥937.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.0% to JP¥818. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥939.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥826 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥19,992, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nitori Holdings at JP¥22,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥18,015. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Nitori Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nitori Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nitori Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.7% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nitori Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Nitori Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Nitori Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.