Shionogi & Co., Ltd. Just Recorded A 34% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (TSE:4507) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of JP¥120b, some 7.6% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at JP¥59.56, 34% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Shionogi

Following last week's earnings report, Shionogi's 14 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥459.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥196, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥455.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥192 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,540. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Shionogi, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,470 and the most bearish at JP¥1,800 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Shionogi's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Shionogi's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 9.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Shionogi.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Shionogi analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Shionogi , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.