Results: Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TSE:4502) just released its half-yearly report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 6.3% to hit JP¥2.4t. Takeda Pharmaceutical also reported a statutory profit of JP¥119, which was an impressive 93% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Takeda Pharmaceutical

Taking into account the latest results, Takeda Pharmaceutical's 18 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥4.46t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 61% to JP¥71.26 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥4.43t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥74.93 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,777, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Takeda Pharmaceutical at JP¥5,900 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,200. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.8% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 8.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Takeda Pharmaceutical is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Takeda Pharmaceutical. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Takeda Pharmaceutical's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,777, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Takeda Pharmaceutical going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Takeda Pharmaceutical (1 is concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.