Results: Asahi Kasei Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Asahi Kasei Corporation (TSE:3407) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to JP¥1,003 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥769b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Asahi Kasei surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥27.65 per share, a notable 18% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Asahi Kasei

Following the latest results, Asahi Kasei's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥3.14t in 2026. This would be a satisfactory 5.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 65% to JP¥102. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥3.14t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥102 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,321, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Asahi Kasei, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,650 and the most bearish at JP¥1,110 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Asahi Kasei's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 158 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Asahi Kasei is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,321, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Asahi Kasei analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Asahi Kasei you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.