Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (TSE:8031) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 4.6% short of analyst estimates at JP¥3.7t, and statutory earnings of JP¥82.27 per share missed forecasts by 9.2%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mitsui after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Mitsui

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the nine analysts covering Mitsui, is for revenues of JP¥14t in 2026. This implies a measurable 3.7% reduction in Mitsui's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 10% to JP¥307 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥14t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥307 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,792. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mitsui at JP¥4,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,200. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.0% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Mitsui is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Mitsui's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,792, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mitsui going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Mitsui (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.