Analysts Are Updating Their ENAV S.p.A. (BIT:ENAV) Estimates After Its Half-Year Results

ENAV S.p.A. (BIT:ENAV) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.4% to €3.70 in the week after its latest interim results. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at €461m, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ENAV after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for ENAV

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from ENAV's six analysts is for revenues of €1.04b in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 5.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 8.0% to €0.23. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.23 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €4.76, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on ENAV, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €5.20 and the most bearish at €4.40 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that ENAV is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that ENAV's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ENAV is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ENAV. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for ENAV going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with ENAV .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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