We Think Transindia Real Estate (NSE:TREL) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Transindia Real Estate Limited (NSE:TREL) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for Transindia Real Estate

What Is Transindia Real Estate's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Transindia Real Estate had debt of ₹687.1m at the end of September 2023, a reduction from ₹1.08b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹152.6m, its net debt is less, at about ₹534.5m.

How Healthy Is Transindia Real Estate's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Transindia Real Estate had liabilities of ₹3.50b due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₹1.16b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹152.6m and ₹480.5m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total ₹4.03b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Transindia Real Estate has a market capitalization of ₹11.5b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Given net debt is only 0.84 times EBITDA, it is initially surprising to see that Transindia Real Estate's EBIT has low interest coverage of 2.5 times. So while we're not necessarily alarmed we think that its debt is far from trivial. We saw Transindia Real Estate grow its EBIT by 2.8% in the last twelve months. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Transindia Real Estate will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last two years, Transindia Real Estate saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Transindia Real Estate's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was disappointing. But on the bright side, its net debt to EBITDA is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Transindia Real Estate stock a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Transindia Real Estate is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.