Stock Analysis

The five-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on Alembic Pharmaceuticals (NSE:APLLTD) shareholders as stock falls 3.6% over the past week

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NSEI:APLLTD

Alembic Pharmaceuticals Limited (NSE:APLLTD) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 13% in the last quarter. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 89%, less than the market return of 177%.

While the stock has fallen 3.6% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Alembic Pharmaceuticals

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Alembic Pharmaceuticals actually saw its EPS drop 1.4% per year.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.

The modest 1.1% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. On the other hand, Alembic Pharmaceuticals' revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 6.8% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NSEI:APLLTD Earnings and Revenue Growth December 13th 2024

Alembic Pharmaceuticals is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Alembic Pharmaceuticals stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Alembic Pharmaceuticals' TSR for the last 5 years was 103%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Alembic Pharmaceuticals shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 40% over one year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 15%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Alembic Pharmaceuticals has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.