Panama Petrochem Limited's (NSE:PANAMAPET) Share Price Boosted 27% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Panama Petrochem Limited (NSE:PANAMAPET) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 27% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 20% is also fairly reasonable.

Even after such a large jump in price, Panama Petrochem's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.5x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 34x and even P/E's above 64x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Panama Petrochem's earnings have been unimpressive. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this benign earnings growth rate will likely underperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Panama Petrochem

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Panama Petrochem, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Any Growth For Panama Petrochem?

Panama Petrochem's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with earnings down 16% overall from three years ago. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 26% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we are not surprised that Panama Petrochem is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Final Word

Panama Petrochem's recent share price jump still sees its P/E sitting firmly flat on the ground. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

As we suspected, our examination of Panama Petrochem revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term are contributing to its low P/E, given the market is set to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Panama Petrochem (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Panama Petrochem, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.