Calculating The Fair Value Of MSP Steel & Power Limited (NSE:MSPL)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, MSP Steel & Power fair value estimate is ₹42.69
• Current share price of ₹46.83 suggests MSP Steel & Power is potentially trading close to its fair value
• When compared to theindustry average discount of -656%, MSP Steel & Power's competitors seem to be trading at a greater premium to fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of MSP Steel & Power Limited (NSE:MSPL) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for MSP Steel & Power

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹1.38b	₹1.51b	₹1.64b	₹1.77b	₹1.91b	₹2.05b	₹2.19b	₹2.34b	₹2.51b	₹2.68b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 10.34%	Est @ 9.25%	Est @ 8.48%	Est @ 7.95%	Est @ 7.57%	Est @ 7.31%	Est @ 7.13%	Est @ 7.00%	Est @ 6.91%	Est @ 6.85%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 16%	₹1.2k	₹1.1k	₹1.1k	₹991	₹921	₹855	₹792	₹733	₹678	₹626

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹9.0b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 16%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹2.7b× (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (16%– 6.7%) = ₹32b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹32b÷ ( 1 + 16%)¹⁰= ₹7.5b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹16b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹46.8, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at MSP Steel & Power as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.316. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For MSP Steel & Power, there are three essential aspects you should assess:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for MSP Steel & Power you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.