Stock Analysis
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Ashoka Buildcon Limited (NSE:ASHOKA) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Ashoka Buildcon
What Is Ashoka Buildcon's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 Ashoka Buildcon had debt of ₹54.4b, up from ₹19.1b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹9.17b, its net debt is less, at about ₹45.3b.
A Look At Ashoka Buildcon's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Ashoka Buildcon had liabilities of ₹91.0b falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₹76.0b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹9.17b and ₹34.2b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling ₹123.6b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the ₹64.6b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Ashoka Buildcon would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Even though Ashoka Buildcon's debt is only 2.0, its interest cover is really very low at 1.4. This does suggest the company is paying fairly high interest rates. In any case, it's safe to say the company has meaningful debt. One way Ashoka Buildcon could vanquish its debt would be if it stops borrowing more but continues to grow EBIT at around 16%, as it did over the last year. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ashoka Buildcon's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Ashoka Buildcon recorded free cash flow of 23% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
To be frank both Ashoka Buildcon's interest cover and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Ashoka Buildcon to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Ashoka Buildcon you should be aware of, and 2 of them are significant.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About NSEI:ASHOKA
Ashoka Buildcon
Engages in the infrastructure development business in India.