There's Reason For Concern Over Ulferts International Limited's (HKG:1711) Massive 28% Price Jump

The Ulferts International Limited (HKG:1711) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 28%. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 36% in the last twelve months.

Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think Ulferts International's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Specialty Retail industry is similar at about 0.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

See our latest analysis for Ulferts International

What Does Ulferts International's Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Ulferts International's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Ulferts International's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Ulferts International's Revenue Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Ulferts International would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 21%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 27% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 11% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Ulferts International's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Ulferts International's P/S

Ulferts International appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We find it unexpected that Ulferts International trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Having said that, be aware Ulferts International is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored.

If you're unsure about the strength of Ulferts International's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com