More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Hop Fung Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:2320) Shares After Tumbling 27%

The Hop Fung Group Holdings Limited (HKG:2320) share price has softened a substantial 27% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 11% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, it's still not a stretch to say that Hop Fung Group Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Packaging industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.7x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

View our latest analysis for Hop Fung Group Holdings

How Hop Fung Group Holdings Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Hop Fung Group Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Hop Fung Group Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is Hop Fung Group Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?

Hop Fung Group Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 22% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 80% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 33% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Hop Fung Group Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Hop Fung Group Holdings' P/S

Following Hop Fung Group Holdings' share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We find it unexpected that Hop Fung Group Holdings trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Hop Fung Group Holdings, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.