Stock Analysis

Ithaca Energy's (LON:ITH one-year decrease in earnings delivers investors with a 15% loss

LSE:ITH
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The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. Unfortunately the Ithaca Energy plc (LON:ITH) share price slid 27% over twelve months. That's well below the market return of 7.9%. We wouldn't rush to judgement on Ithaca Energy because we don't have a long term history to look at. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 18% in the last 90 days.

After losing 6.2% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

See our latest analysis for Ithaca Energy

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Ithaca Energy managed to increase earnings per share from a loss to a profit, over the last 12 months.

The result looks like a strong improvement to us, so we're surprised the market has sold down the shares. If the improved profitability is a sign of things to come, then right now may prove the perfect time to pop this stock on your watchlist.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
LSE:ITH Earnings Per Share Growth May 3rd 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Ithaca Energy's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Ithaca Energy, it has a TSR of -15% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While Ithaca Energy shareholders are down 15% for the year (even including dividends), the market itself is up 7.9%. While the aim is to do better than that, it's worth recalling that even great long-term investments sometimes underperform for a year or more. It's worth noting that the last three months did the real damage, with a 18% decline. So it seems like some holders have been dumping the stock of late - and that's not bullish. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Ithaca Energy has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Ithaca Energy is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.