Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. Just Missed Revenue By 13%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. (BME:NTGY) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 3.2% to €25.36. Revenues were €19b, 13% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of €1.96 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Naturgy Energy Group after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Naturgy Energy Group

Taking into account the latest results, Naturgy Energy Group's eleven analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €19.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 9.7% to €1.81 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €22.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.83 in 2025. Indeed we can see that the consensus opinion has undergone some fundamental changes following the latest results, with a substantial drop in revenues and some minor tweaks to earnings numbers.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of €25.10, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Naturgy Energy Group's market value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Naturgy Energy Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €30.00 and the most bearish at €22.50 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Naturgy Energy Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Naturgy Energy Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.2% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Naturgy Energy Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €25.10, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Naturgy Energy Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Naturgy Energy Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Naturgy Energy Group (including 1 which is potentially serious) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.